Muhammed Shafeeque CM
As all Indians well celebrate the anniversary of demonetization in utmost foolish mood, it is vital to look upon the politics played by ruling government in terms of Economics, the cornerstone of growth in a nation. In ancient times, better to call the past decade as ancient due to people’s forgotten attitude towards certain values, the voters came forward with the Economic failure and success at electoral periods. In contrast, now we can see people applauding communal and sectional slogans which destruct the multi culture spirit of a nation like India. This fact is so clear when things went unto demonetization and GST which was not all celebrated in terms of failure by Media and Economic intellects.
The economic world once got astonished when Raghuram Rajan resigned from RBI governor post on September, 2016. Unfortunately, the government not at all addressed the retirement of a prominent economist, who made drastic change and unforeseen development in Indian Economy. Despite, Subhramanya Swami then sent a letter to finance minister, Arun Jaitley, vigorously alleging the RBI governor. The silence of finance minister was a shock for all Indians, as it seems to be non-ethical to an Economist living under his department. But the brutal mystery got attention when Raghuram Rajan addressed the nation with his new book ‘I do what I do’. In real, it was a striking question to the politics played upon the Economy of a nation.
The intervention of RBI in demonetization was not clear until the release of the so called book. Even the government pre-empted that RBI has condemned the activity of demonetization on May 19, 2016. But the new book pursued those comments as controversial to actual facts. He said “At no point during my term was the RBI asked to make a decision on demonetisation. I was asked by the government in February 2016 for my view on demonetisation, which I gave orally. Although there might be long-term benefits, I felt the likely short-term economic costs would outweigh them. When they asked for written description, I also gave it detailing the pros and cons of Demonetisation in India. Even I warned if you are looking progressive in so called decision, then it needs concrete framework”.
There is no chance to forget the speech performed by Arun Jaitley during the third anniversary of Modi government. He loudly announced that Demonetisation has not affected the Indian economy. But it was interesting to note the various and distinguished reports released after November 8. Here, it is vital to note the talk of TCA Anand, Chief Economist in Indian Statistics Office, who well explained the secret of the variance in those reports. Moreover he said “the aftermath of a nation’s Economy, particularly after a major event like demonetisation, is not able to calculate within a short period of time. Thus it is better to keep mum for a while”. From this report it is well clear that those report traces some political influence, targeted to powder the eyes of citizens.
At the eve of Budget it was so interesting the statements of Finance Minister about the growth of agricultural sector in India. If it is righteous, why Rabi crops in west get stagnated? Even the raise in price of vegetables is non-answerable.
The less liquidity and non-employment resulted in the reduction of demand for goods and commodities which further added fuel to fire. This strongly affected the Economic growth of nation. The GDP of nation in the fourth quarter of 2016-17 financial years went down to 6.1 which were too lower compared to the predictions of Planning commission and Niti Ayog. Further, it is important to note that the unorganised sector of the nation is not only concentrated in agriculture, but, more than 31 % from unorganised sector depends on non-agricultural sectors. The Sufferings of people belonging to those sectors have not get well attention. This type of unrealistic reports and robot Economists are the prime challenge, now facing by the nation.
As Raghuram Rajan quoted, it is important to change the political structure of nation recognising RBI governor as a mere government officer. Even they need the utmost power to advice the central government and they need to consider it in foremost sense. Moreover he opposed the notion of media representing the governor as an agent of opposition party. In his book he said that the real victims of demonetisation are poor people and it may not get much attention while calculating the GDP of the nation.
In brief, historically, we can notice the failure of governments, where Economics came controlled by political interests. The stagnation of Indian Economy once passed South Korea and Malaysia in terms of Economic growth in 1950’s was due to such political interventions. India has not yet witnessed shortage of Economists. It is only from India and Japan from Asian countries, people who won Nobel Prize in Economics. Let we Analyze the findings of Pitambar Pant in 1970 as it clearly depicts the story of such failures. The study was totally based on the prominent slogan ‘Garibi Hatao’, proclaimed by Indira Gandi Government. Eventhough the book clearly outlined the poverty of nation; there was no answer about reason behind the origin of this abandoned poverty.
In 2004, BJP government tasted the failure in election due to the drawbacks of their programme ‘India Shining’. At that time poor people and rural citizens believed the UPA government. In 2009, UPA government become able to continue the rule due to the employment opportunities given through Mahathma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee act (NREGA). To escape from such an intellectual mood of calculation, BJP came forward with communal slogans and it got the attention they expected.
Now, it is important to better analyse the Economic system, moving in respect to the interest multi billionaires and corporate. Even though it seems to be late, we need such intervention made by Raghuram rajan. We need to look upon the reality behind fake Economic reports. Better, we can expect an intellectual cadre, who calculate the progress of government in all spheres, especially in growth and development. KHUDA HAFIZ!!!!!!!